Joe Brady’s to-do list starts with rebuilding Josh Allen’s confidence

ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. — After realizing the Denver Broncos‘ defense had recovered a fumble on Monday night, Josh Allen lowered his head for just a moment before walking off the field with his hands on his hips.

For the fourth time in their 24-22 loss to the Broncos, the Buffalo Bills turned the ball over — this time on a missed handoff between Allen and running back James Cook. It was Allen’s third turnover of the game (he’d previously thrown two interceptions) and 14th of the season, the most in the league.

The loss dropped the Bills to 5-5, leaving them on the outside looking in in the latest playoff picture with seven games to go. Hours after the loss, the Bills made a big shift when coach Sean McDermott fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, who was Allen’s quarterbacks coach from 2019 to ’21. Dorsey was someone who Allen said he loves “as a human being, he’s one of the good ones,” and he was sad to see him go.

The 27-year-old Allen is now on the third offensive coordinator of his career in Joe Brady.

At the top of a long list of questions to be answered by McDermott, Brady and Allen is where the offense goes from here. A key part of that is how Allen’s confidence can stay high after so many lackluster performances.

“I’ve got to be better,” Allen said. “We’ve got to be better as an offense. Turnover-wise, it’s abysmal when we lose, and there’s no secret to that. So there’s not a whole lot … it’s not like it’s broken. We’re not a broken offense, we’re not a broken team. But the splits compared to when we win and when we lose are massive. Again, that’s on my shoulders.”

When the Bills have the edge in turnover margin, they’re 3-0, averaging 41 points per game and are plus-90 in total point differential. But when they lose the turnover battle, they are 2-5, averaging 19.9 points per game with a minus-12 combined differential.

Allen came into the season with the goal of being smarter with the football after he had a league-high 19 turnovers in 2022.

“I want to be the smartest quarterback with the football in my hands. I don’t want to put the ball in harm’s way because I know how detrimental that is for a team with those interceptions and the fumbles,” Allen said in April.

McDermott acknowledged Allen’s confidence needs to improve.

“Probably not where we’d like him to be,” McDermott said on Tuesday when asked where Allen’s mentality is. “And that’s natural based on some of the results that we’ve gotten this year, some of the results he’s gotten, some of the turnovers in particular. But I’m confident that he’ll find it.”

Allen has been notoriously hard on himself — something McDermott has discussed before — but the quarterback is turning to his teammates for support.

“You rely on the guys in this locker room. You lean on each other,” Allen said. “It’s how you get back up from being knocked down. This locker room there’s been plenty of being knocked down. We’ve felt that. … I think it takes a lot to look at yourself in the mirror and say, ‘What can I do that’s been good, and what can I do to fix what’s been bad?'”

The task for Allen and Brady, who has been Allen’s QB coach the past two seasons, will be to restore Allen’s confidence and get him to place where he can sustain drives consistently.

Allen emphasized they needed to improve communication as an offense, and also noted “not getting bored with the stuff underneath” — likely referencing mistakes when passing on deeper routes downfield.

Allen has thrown 10 interceptions on throws of 10 or more air yards — one away from tying his career high. Since Week 6, when Allen injured his right shoulder, he has completed 15 of 38 passes of 15 or more air yards and thrown four interceptions on such throws.

The Bills have 18 turnovers on the season, tied with the Chicago Bears and Las Vegas Raiders for the second most in the NFL (the Cleveland Browns lead with 19). They’ve gone six straight games without winning the turnover battle, their longest streak since 2012.

The offense hasn’t scored more than 25 points since Week 4 and at times has looked predictable. But it is still ranked near the top of the league in a variety of categories, including completion percentage (second) and offensive EPA per play (third).

“In the end, it’s about what makes [No.] 17 comfortable and what makes everyone else comfortable, and it’ll be an ongoing thing of figuring that out and trying to put together complete games on Sundays,” center and captain Mitch Morse said.

McDermott made the change to inject a new energy into the offense. Getting leadership from Brady, who at 34 is taking over his second NFL offensive coordinator job after spending almost two seasons with the Panthers in the same role, is a key component of that.

“I feel strongly about this. That coordinator position, just like the head coach position, it’s a leadership position,” McDermott said.

The job for Brady, Allen and the rest of the offense on a short week isn’t easy, as they go up against a New York Jets team (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS) that McDermott described as “probably the most talented defense in the league.”

Allen’s 10 career interceptions against the Jets are his most against a single opponent and tied for the second most by any quarterback against a single opponent since 2018 (Baker Mayfield vs. the Ravens, 11). Allen threw three interceptions against the Jets in a Week 1 loss. Now, ahead of a big AFC East matchup, finding that offensive flow and success will be key for the Bills to keep their playoff hopes alive.

“Listen, Josh is extremely competitive and holds himself to a high standard,” Morse said. “… I think it’s just a subtle thing. That you just tell the guy that we’ve got his back implicitly, emphatically, which we do. I mean, there’s no other guy we want to do this with.”