Thursday, 07 December 2023 / Published in Uncategorized

Updated NFL playoff picture: AFC, NFC seed projections before Week 14

There are five weeks left in the 2023 NFL regular season, and we’re inching closer to January with a preliminary snapshot of how the 14-team playoff picture could look on the road to Super Bowl LVIII.

After the Philadelphia Eagles were blown out by the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13, the race for the 1-seed in the NFC tightened up. In the AFC, the battle for the top spot is close as well, with the Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins all having a great chance to get a first-round bye. The Jacksonville Jaguars had hopes for the top seed, but they were downed in overtime by the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday night.

Which teams could sneak into the wild-card round? And which teams’ hopes are all but over? We used ESPN’s Football Power Index to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences, along with odds for the favorites to make the postseason, clinch the division and even make the Super Bowl.

We also have seeding projections for the AFC and NFC, so you can see the most likely matchups in each conference, and an early look at the teams fighting for the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.

Here’s everything you need as we get closer to the NFL playoffs (updated Tuesday, Dec. 5):

Jump to a section:
AFC: Full projections | Seeding
NFC: Full projections | Seeding
Matchup of the week
Race for the 2024 No. 1 pick

Projecting the AFC playoff field

FPI sees clear favorites in all four divisions in the AFC — and two teams stand out with the best chances to make the Super Bowl.

After the Kansas City Chiefs lost in Week 13, their hopes for the 1-seed, which comes with a bye until the divisional round, dropped considerably. In the opening wild-card round, the 2-seed hosts the 7-seed, the 3-seed hosts the 6-seed and the 4-seed hosts the 5-seed.

Projecting the NFC playoff field

And here’s where things stand in the NFC, which has three divisions all but locked up. The Atlanta Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints in Week 12, but the NFC South race is tight. The Green Bay Packers, who have won three games in a row, just keep rising.

The Philadelphia Eagles have the inside track to get the 1-seed, which comes with a bye until the divisional round, but they now have some company. In the opening wild-card round, the 2-seed hosts the 7-seed, the 3-seed hosts the 6-seed and the 4-seed hosts the 5-seed.

The wild-card race in the NFC is wide open, as seed Nos. 6 and 7 could come from a host of teams. The 5-seed, though, appears likely to be the Dallas Cowboys, who only have an outside shot to catch the Eagles in the East.

The one game you should absolutely watch

For all intents and purposes, Week 14 could see the NFC East title decided. If the Philadelphia Eagles win, they’d have a two-game lead over the Dallas Cowboys — and have the head-to-head tiebreakers. If the Cowboys win, however, things would get interesting. FPI favors Dallas to win it at home, too.

The race for the No. 1 pick in 2024

The 2024 NFL draft likely will feature two quarterbacks fighting for the No. 1 spot, as Caleb Williams (USC) and Drake Maye (North Carolina) are ESPN’s top-ranked prospects. Which teams could take them? After Week 13’s results, the picture has become clearer.

The 4-8 Chicago Bears own the 1-11 Carolina Panthers‘ first-round pick (via last year’s pre-draft trade), and that selection has a 76% chance to land at No. 1, according to FPI. The 2-10 New England Patriots now have the second-best odds to snag the top pick.

The 3-10 Arizona Cardinals also have two first-round picks, with FPI projecting their original selection at No. 3 and the 6-5 Houston Texans‘ pick — which was acquired in the move up last April — at No. 23.