Tuesday, 26 December 2023 / Published in Uncategorized

AFC, NFC seed projections after Week 16

There are two weeks left in the 2023 NFL regular season, and we’re inching closer to the new year with a snapshot of how the 14-team playoff picture could look on the road to Super Bowl LVIII.

The San Francisco 49ers — despite a Week 16 loss to the Baltimore Ravens — are sitting pretty to get the 1-seed in the NFC, while the Ravens are the favorites to get a first-round bye in the AFC. A few teams already have clinched postseason berths, too.

Which teams could sneak into the wild-card round? And which teams’ hopes are all but over? We used ESPN’s Football Power Index to project the rest of the season, looking at the playoff picture for both conferences, along with odds for the favorites to make the postseason, clinch the division and even make the Super Bowl. We also have seeding projections for the AFC and NFC, so you can see the most likely matchups in each conference, and get an early look at the teams fighting for the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft.

Here’s everything you need as we get closer to the NFL playoffs (updated Tuesday):

Jump to a section:
AFC: Full projections | Seeding
NFC: Full projections | Seeding
Matchup of the week
Race for the 2024 No. 1 pick

Projecting the AFC playoff field

The Buffalo Bills‘ postseason chances have skyrocketed after winning four of their past five games. The Pittsburgh Steelers won in Week 16, but the FPI gives them only a 12% chance to make the playoffs, which is slightly less than that of the team they beat, the Cincinnati Bengals, who have an 18% chance.

The Baltimore Ravens and Miami Dolphins have the best chance to get the 1-seed and the first-round bye in the AFC, and the two teams face each other in Baltimore in Week 17.

In the wild-card round, the 2-seed hosts the 7-seed, the 3-seed hosts the 6-seed and the 4-seed hosts the 5-seed.

Projecting the NFC playoff field

The Dallas Cowboys‘ hopes of winning the NFC East took a major hit after their blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 15 and their 22-20 loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 16. In the South, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won four games in a row and are the clear favorites to take the division.

The San Francisco 49ers have the inside track to get the 1-seed, which comes with a bye, but their Week 16 loss to the Baltimore Ravens means other teams have hope.

The Los Angeles Rams now have a 75% chance to make the playoffs but it will most likely come as the 6- or 7-seed, as the Dallas Cowboys are heavy favorites to be the 5-seed.

The one game you should absolutely watch

The Detroit Lions have clinched the NFC North, but the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings could still get into the postseason via wild-card berths. That’s why their Week 17 matchup in Minneapolis is so important. Both teams are 7-8 and have to win the matchup to have any shot at making the playoffs.

The race for the No. 1 pick in 2024

The 2024 NFL draft likely will feature two quarterbacks fighting for the No. 1 spot, as Caleb Williams (USC) and Drake Maye (North Carolina) are ESPN’s top-ranked prospects. Which teams could take them? After Week 16’s results, the picture has become clearer.

The 6-9 Chicago Bears own the 2-13 Carolina Panthers‘ first-round pick (via last year’s pre-draft trade), and that selection has a 96% chance to land at No. 1, according to the FPI. The 3-12 Arizona Cardinals also have two first-round picks, with the FPI projecting their original selection at No. 2 and the 8-7 Houston Texans‘ pick (acquired in their move up in April) at No. 17.