Despite Stroud’s emergence, Texans GM has work cut out to rebuild roster

HOUSTON — The 2023 offseason went as well as the Houston Texans‘ could have hoped.

General manager Nick Caserio’s bevy of activity started with hiring DeMeco Ryans, who barely missed out on the voting for Coach of the Year last week, and drafted quarterback C.J. Stroud with the No. 2 pick before trading up to No. 3 to take defensive end Will Anderson Jr.

Stroud was named the Offensive Rookie of the Year and Anderson was named Defensive Rookie of the Year at the NFL Honors on Thursday in Vegas, and a fruitful free agency also aided the Texans (10-7) in winning the AFC South for the first time since 2019 and advancing to the divisional round of the playoffs after defeating the visiting Cleveland Browns in the wild-card round.

As the page turns to the 2024 offseason, Caserio will have his work cut out for him again. The Texans have a league-high 30 free agents, as their cap situation graciously reflects. Although the official salary cap figure hasn’t been released for the new league year yet, Houston will have roughly $61.86 million in projected cap space, which is the fourth most, according to Roster Management System.

“Things are going to change, and being able to be flexible and understand that happens — and under my leadership, whatever happens, it’s my responsibility to find the right people,” Ryans said. “And for me, I always come back to the people. If you find the right people that can lead, that are willing to help with a servant-leadership mindset. If we find the right people, that’s all that matters.”

The Texans have seen success vanish in the past. They won four division titles from 2015 to 2019 and then went 11-38-1 the next three seasons.

The Texans didn’t just turn things around with youth though, as Caserio was able to sprinkle veterans up and down the roster, making them one of the oldest teams in the league last season.

The list of noteworthy free agents starts with defensive end Jonathan Greenard, who had 12.5 sacks (tied for 10th). There’s also linebacker Blake Cashman, who led the team in tackles (109), tight end Dalton Schultz, cornerback Steven Nelson, kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins.

Though the Texans have plenty of cap space to work with, retaining a player like Greenard will be costly, and Caserio must decide where he wants to invest.

For reference, the Seattle Seahawks signed defensive end Dre’Mont Jones to a three-year $51.53 million deal last year after he had a career-high 6.5 sacks in 2022 with the Denver Broncos. The Broncos replaced Jones by signing former Arizona Cardinals defensive end Zach Allen to a three-year, $47 million deal after finishing with 5.5 in 2022.

Greenard isn’t only effective at getting to the quarterback, he also had the third-highest run stop win rate (37%) among ends with at least 200 snaps and a pass rush win rate of 22.4% (sixth highest).

Caserio acknowledged Greenard’s success in 2023 but said he will let the contract situation with the former 2020 third-round pick play out during the free agency period.

“Jonathan did a great job this year,” Caserio told the Houston Chronicle. “He’s done a number of great things for the organization over a number of years. We’ll continue to have dialogue here and kind of see where we end up [at the beginning of the new league year], or before then, once we get to the free agency period.”

ESPN asked an NFC executive what it would cost to retain a player like Greenard, and he said the 26-year-old could command $22 million to $24 million per year.

Ryans has repeatedly stated that he believes in building along the trenches.

“The front, again, is everything for me, and we’ll invest a ton of resources into the front,” Ryans said. “If you want to play good defense, your front has to be elite, and that’s what I envision us playing — elite defensive football.”

As free agency begins March 13, the Texans will continue to meticulously build around Stroud, who had a historic rookie season that ended in him making the Pro Bowl.

“I’m really excited to see how much this team is going to grow,” Stroud said. “… A lot of experience was made this year, and things like that, so I’m super, super excited for the future.”