Why ‘it’s too early’ to tell if Panthers made a mistake by trading up to draft Bryce Young No. 1 in 2023

INDIANAPOLIS — The buzz at last year’s NFL combine was that the Houston Texans wanted to trade with the Chicago Bears to move from second to first overall in the draft to select Alabama quarterback Bryce Young. The Carolina Panthers were looking to move from ninth to second or third and take one of the top three quarterbacks, believing Young was the best of the lot.

The Panthers also met with free agent quarterback Derek Carr in Indianapolis. And they spoke with the Baltimore Ravens about free agent Lamar Jackson with a dollar figure in mind they wouldn’t exceed if a sign-and-trade deal could be reached, according to a source with knowledge of the talks.

But ultimately their target was Young, who was considered the top choice over Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud by most teams despite his 5-foot-10, 204-pound frame that fell well below the NFL standards.

It was during that annual pilgrimage to Indianapolis for player evaluations that then-Carolina general manager Scott Fitterer quietly initiated a meeting with Bears GM Ryan Poles that ultimately led to a trade for the No. 1 overall pick on March 10.

Young then had one of the worst years in NFL history for a quarterback taken No. 1, and Carolina had an NFL-worst 2-15 record.

Stroud, taken No. 2 by the Texans, had a historic rookie campaign — 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns, 5 interceptions — was named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and led the Texans to the playoffs with a 10-7 record.

Does that mean the Panthers made a huge mistake in trading two first-round picks (2023, 2024) and top wide receiver DJ Moore for the right to draft Young? Not according to NFL executives, coaches and scouts at last week’s combine.

“It’s too early,” said Tampa Bay Buccaneers general manager Jason Licht. “You can’t take anything away from Stroud. He had a great year. Unbelievable.

“But it’s still too early to tell. It wouldn’t surprise me, as good as Bryce was in college, if he rebounds and has a helluva year this year.”

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MOST WHO WERE interviewed believe if Stroud had ended up in Carolina, he would have struggled, and if Young had gone to Houston, he would have succeeded because the Texans were set up better for success.

“Houston had an absolutely phenomenal offense that would have fit Bryce perfectly,” said one NFL executive, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “It fit CJ perfectly. There wasn’t as much to manage at the line of scrimmage. There were a lot of guys running wide open, and not because they are great separators.

“It’s a lot of scheme.”

Most agreed that Carolina’s spread offense — orchestrated by coach Frank Reich, who was fired after a 1-10 start — lacked the personnel, from offensive line to tight end to wide receiver, to be successful.

Multiple sources with direct knowledge of the situation also said there was dysfunction in Carolina because of a difference in philosophy between Reich, offensive coordinator Thomas Brown and offensive line coach James Campen. Several with knowledge of the situation noted the pistol formation used prominently in the season opener wasn’t implemented until the week before, an example of not having Young properly prepared.

“That’s how little of a plan there was,” said one source with knowledge of the situation.

“Bryce really didn’t stand a chance,” said another source with direct knowledge of what was going on.

“They put way too much on him,” another source said.

Those factors, combined with the history of No. 1 overall quarterbacks struggling as rookies because they often land on bad teams, are why those in Indianapolis weren’t quick to rule Young a failure.

“There’s guys that have lit it on fire that have fizzled, and there’s guys that started slow and came back and played great,” Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard said. “Everybody wants to make a prediction without just waiting patiently for the outcome.”

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NEW CAROLINA COACH Dave Canales said Young doesn’t need “a big fix” as much as the offense needs fixing in general to play to Young’s strengths.

Those who witnessed Canales help former Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield to a career-best season in 2023 as offensive coordinator with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Geno Smith to his best season in 2022 as quarterbacks coach with the Seattle Seahawks believe he can do the same as Young’s head coach.

Tampa Bay coach Todd Bowles said Young is a “tremendous talent and he’s [going to be] great for this league.”

“Obviously, the schemes [in Houston] fit CJ better,” he said. “Bryce got off to a rough start. … That doesn’t mean he’s not a good quarterback. That just means the jury is still out. I have a lot of belief in him.”

Denver Broncos coach Sean Payton said because of all the unknown variables, he couldn’t evaluate whether Young or Stroud will be a long-term success, though he acknowledged after facing Stroud that he had a “great season.”

Payton knows a thing or two about getting the most out of shorter quarterbacks like Young and the specific plan it takes to do that. When he was coach of the New Orleans Saints, they signed the 6-foot Drew Brees as a free agent. The former Purdue quarterback went 40-28 during five seasons with the San Diego Chargers, who took him in Round 2 of the 2001 draft.

In 15 seasons with the Saints, the future Hall of Famer went 151-94, won Super Bowl XLIV and was named Super Bowl MVP.

Payton reminded how during the 2006 draft’s fourth round, the Saints selected guard Jahri Evans, who became a six-time Pro Bowl selection and a key in developing an interior line that would allow Brees to showcase his talents.

In 2023, Carolina had seven different players start at left guard and eight at right guard due to injuries and poor play. Young was sacked 62 times, second only to the Washington Commanders‘ Sam Howell (65).

“I do think part of our jobs is to build around the strength of your players,” Payton said. “Oftentimes, these guys are seeing through lanes, not necessarily throwing over them. For some quarterbacks, that can be a little more challenging.”

Canales plans to simplify the Carolina offense and build around the running game to help Young regain the confidence that allowed him to throw 80 touchdown passes to 12 interceptions at Alabama. That begins with shoring up the interior line.

Seattle general manager John Schneider said that was key in what Canales did with Smith, and before him, the 5-foot-11 Russell Wilson, who put up career-best numbers in 2020 with Canales as the passing game coordinator.

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POLES WOULDN’T PREDICT what the future holds for Young or Stroud, but he liked the way the trade turned out for the Bears, since they got the Panthers’ 2024 first-round pick, which is No. 1 overall.

“I would say that’s successful,” he said.

Most agreed it’s generally tough to predict success for first-year quarterbacks, as Poles and others in Indianapolis were assessing the consensus top quarterbacks in the 2024 draft: USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels.

History shows Stroud’s rookie success isn’t a guarantee of long-term success any more than Young’s struggles are a guarantee of failure.

Buffalo Bills general manager Brandon Beane reminded of what he went through in 2018 when Josh Allen went 5-6 as a rookie after Beane gave Tampa Bay the No. 12 overall pick and a pair of second-round picks to move up five spots to draft the Wyoming quarterback at No. 7.

Allen had 10 touchdowns, 12 interceptions and completed 52.8% of his passes as a rookie — similar to Young’s 11 touchdowns, 10 interceptions and 59.8 completion percentage.

Allen has gone 58-24 since and is regarded as one of the top quarterbacks in the league.

“It’s one of those things, if you can get a franchise quarterback and he turns out to be a franchise quarterback, it’ll be a good move,” Beane said. “We got criticized a little bit for how much we gave up for Josh, and I’m like, ‘Well, if he doesn’t work out, I’m not going to be here anyway. And if he does work out, nobody’s gonna give a s—.'”