Projecting the Giants’ first-round pick in the 2024 NFL draft

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. — The predictions on who the New York Giants like at the top of the draft and who they will select have never been more varied.

That is because the 2024 NFL draft is essentially as wide open as it has been in recent history. USC quarterback Caleb Williams seems a lock to go No. 1 overall to the Chicago Bears. After that, it is anyone’s guess, even if LSU’s Jayden Daniels is the favorite to land at No. 2 with the Washington Commanders.

Usually pick No. 6, which the Giants currently hold, would be relatively easy to whittle down to a few names. Not this year. There are so many moving parts, and an unusual number of teams eyeing the top of the draft to trade up for a quarterback.

That makes this year’s most likely Giants pick exercise a bit trickier. They would prefer a quarterback but might not get the chance at the one or two they truly covet. Daniels would likely be atop this list if the Giants could realistically land him.

General manager Joe Schoen would be fine staying put and grabbing a top wide receiver, too. Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr. or LSU’s Malik Nabers are hardly consolation prizes. They would be slam-dunk picks that fill a massive need. Both are realistic possibilities.

Here’s a ranking of the Giants’ most likely first-round pick. These are the prospects most likely to be selected by the Giants this year at pick No. 6 … or somewhere in that range:

1. WR Malik Nabers, LSU: This is the Giants’ wide receiver of choice assuming that Harrison is already taken. It’s Nabers’ explosive run-after-the-catch ability that separates him from the competition. “Looks like a wide receiver with the ball in his hands,” one source explained. Nabers was 10th in the nation with 595 yards after the catch last season. He is an ideal fit for coach Brian Daboll’s offense, which wants to put the ball in the receivers’ hands and let them work. The Giants haven’t had a 1,000-yard receiver since Odell Beckham Jr. in 2018, so a player of Nabers’ ilk is needed. Sterling Shepard is probably the best receiver that quarterback Daniel Jones has ever had to work with.

2. QB Drake Maye, UNC: Maye would be higher on this list if it were simply the Giants’ choice. But it’s not with three quarterback-hungry teams at the top. Maye is the quarterback that sources believe the Giants want and have the best chance of landing, especially with Daniels seemingly little more than a pipe dream. The talent is there for the 21-year-old Maye. He has the size (6-foot-4, 230 pounds), arm and athleticism that has some teams dreaming about the upside. It appears the Giants are in that mix, even if he has some risk. Of all the quarterbacks in this draft, he’s the one that most closely resembles Josh Allen. Of course, the difficult part is that landing Maye will almost certainly involve some type of trade. Trading up to No. 4 with the Arizona Cardinals seems most likely and would cost the Giants somewhere in the range of a Day 2 pick and more, whether this year or next.

3. WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State: It’s not out of the realm of possibilities that he falls to the Giants. Or the Giants move up one spot to No. 5 for a reasonable price to grab the top wide receiver in this class. “By far the best. He’s the dude,” a scout said. This is how Harrison ends up a Giant: The first three picks are predictably quarterback. The Minnesota Vikings trade up to No. 4. Multiple executives believe the Los Angeles Chargers and coach Jim Harbaugh are targeting Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt. That leaves Harrison available for the Giants. Who would have thought that a month ago? Now it’s more realistic. In fact, something like it seems to be the most likely outcome.

4. QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan: The Giants’ interest in McCarthy has been real throughout the process. And he’s been impressive. The question is if Daboll and Schoen are willing to put all their chips in the middle for a quarterback who is such a projection. McCarthy wasn’t asked to put the team on his shoulders at Michigan. But clearly there is a lot to like. “I don’t think there is a shortage of talent there,” one assistant general manager said. There was a time the Giants probably thought McCarthy would be there for them at No. 6. Now, they likely have to trade up to No. 4 or 5 to have any chance … if he’s not taken earlier.

5. WR Rome Odunze, Washington: Productive, talented receiver is almost getting overshadowed in the leadup to the draft with Harrison and Nabers also in this class. It doesn’t mean that Odunze doesn’t have fans inside the Giants building and around the league. There is a lot to like with a receiver who is 6-3 and 212 pounds, runs the 40-yard dash in 4.45 seconds and has the production to match. Odunze is about as clean a prospect as they come. The Giants would be just fine if he ended up as their No. 1 receiver.

Just missed: OT Joe Alt, QB Bo Nix, CB Quinyon Mitchell